Backtest

Historical performance simulation — 60 stocks, 252 trading days, updated nightly.

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Latest Backtest Results
Win Rate
88.1%
222W / 30L / 0F
Avg Return
+3.039%
per pick
Median Return
+2.012%
per pick
Total Return
+765.7%
sum of 252 days
Best Day
+35.95%
ORCL · 2025-09-10
Worst Day
-3.58%
BMY · 2025-10-02
By Score Quartile
Quartile N Win % Avg Ret Score Range
Q1 (Low) 63 79.4% +1.175% 0.593–0.689
Q2 64 81.2% +1.854% 0.691–0.713
Q3 62 93.5% +4.233% 0.713–0.743
Q4 (High) 63 98.4% +4.931% 0.743–0.852
SPY Benchmark Comparison
Picker Total
+765.7%
cumulative return
SPY Total
+29.9%
buy-and-hold baseline
Alpha
+735.8%
252 days compared
Picker
+765.7%
SPY
+29.9%
Walk-Forward Period Breakdown

The backtest period split into 4 equal windows. Consistent performance across all periods suggests genuine edge rather than luck in one stretch.

Period Dates N Win % Avg Ret Total SPY Total
Period 1 2025-04-16 – 2025-07-17 63 87.3% +2.247% +141.6% +16.1%
Period 2 2025-07-18 – 2025-10-15 63 87.3% +3.956% +249.3% +6.2%
Period 3 2025-10-16 – 2026-01-15 63 90.5% +3.018% +190.1% +4.4%
Period 4 2026-01-16 – 2026-04-17 63 87.3% +2.933% +184.8% +3.1%
Monte Carlo — Skill vs Luck

2,000 simulations randomly resampling the same return pool. If the actual total return falls in a high percentile, the pick order (skill) contributed meaningfully — not just the underlying stock returns.

Actual Total
+765.7%
Random Median
+25.6%
p50 of simulations
Percentile Rank
100th
vs random picks
Distribution of random-pick total returns (2000 sims):
p5: -19.5% p25: +7.1% median: +25.6% p75: +44.6% p95: +72.9%